▲ Carlos Nobre. © REUTERS/Nacho Doce
Q. Last year the Amazon lost an area of forest half the size of Switzerland.Is it at a tipping point?
Yes, unfortunately, we are very close to a tipping point – the moment at which the Amazon could transition from a lush tropical forest into a dry, degraded open-canopy savanna system – particularly the southern Amazon. The dry season is now 4-5 weeks longer. The forest in southern Amazon has become a carbon source. This is because of a combination of land use change when deforestation reduced the water recycling and global warming causing more frequent droughts.
▲ Livestock farming in Amazonas, Brazil. © Daniel Beltrá / Greenpeace
Q. What are the most important priorities for the Amazon right now?
We have to get to zero deforestation and degradation and we have to do it immediately to save the Amazon. We also urgently need to stop the fires. Unlike most biomes in mid-latitudes, such as tropical savannas and grasslands, the Amazon evolved over tens of millions of years without frequent wildfires. Tropical forests such as the Amazon have a very closed canopy through which only 4% of solar radiation can penetrate to the forest floor. This means the soil and organic matter remains wet and not flammable. That’s why tropical forests have larger levels of biodiversity and a greater capacity to store carbon. Unfortunately, in modern livestock farming they use fire a lot. Farmers burn forest to expand their pastureland. They also burn degraded pasture to try and fertilize the soil, but these fires can spread into neighbouring forest. So we need to get to zero deforestation, zero degradation and zero fires.
Q. You have said that you believe the “savannization” of the Amazon can be reversed. What are you seeing that gives you reason for that hope?
When we look at the ecological evolution of the Amazon forest, we see that the secondary forest is really effective in regrowth. For example, in the past when strong winds or severe droughts destroyed the primary forest, secondary forest would grow back very fast, reaching 7-10 metres of height within a few years, protecting the soil and the species within the forest. Then after one or two decades, the primary forest takes over again. This system has evolved over millions of years. And the secondary species are also particularly efficient in recycling water through a process called evapotranspiration – almost like the trees are sweating. This process not only lowers the temperature within the forest by up to 5 degrees, it also keeps pumping water from the soil into the atmosphere, which in turn generates clouds and rain. The recycling of water by the Amazon forest explains about 30-40% of the region’s rainfall. Secondary forests are also very effective in this respect.
Q. So how can we turn this hope into reality?
We have to create the largest forest restoration project on the planet. This requires reforesting and restoring a huge area of degraded forest in the South Amazon. At COP27, we of the Science Panel for the Amazon launched the Arcs of Restoration – a project to restore at least 50 million hectares of forest in the Amazon. The first arc, from the Atlantic coast to northern Bolivia, is the most deforested region, covering 2.3 million square kilometres – about one third of the entire Amazon. This arc runs along the southern border of the Amazon where it transitions into the Cerrado biome and it’s especially fragile as the rainy season is already shortening. The second arc is along the eastern foothills of the Andes, stretching from Bolivia through Peru and Ecuador to Colombia. This region has the highest biodiversity on the planet, so it’s very important.
▲ Mountain Range of the River Track, Bom Jardim da Serra, Brazil. © Mateus Campos Felipe
Q. How much money is needed for these Arcs of Restoration?
Our initial calculations put the cost at around $20 billion. But it varies according to the type of restoration required. Where you have deforested areas not far from remaining primary forest, you can encourage natural regeneration, starting with secondary growth. The main thing is to protect these areas from fire, which doesn’t cost too much – around $100 per hectare per year. Between 60 and 70% of the 50 million hectares falls into this category. In the remaining areas of larger scale deforestation – when you’re further than say 20 km from the natural forest – then natural regeneration is very slow. That’s where you have to engage in re-forestation, which involves nurseries for seedlings and so on. That costs around $1000-2000 per hectare. There is also an opportunity to create a new bioeconomy on 10% or 20% of degraded areas, where you encourage farming that combines reforestation with the cultivation of commercially valuable species, such as acai berries, cocoa and Brazil nuts in diverse agroforestry systems.
Q. Talking of commercial opportunities, as a leading scientist on the Amazon, what is your message for those working in agricultural commodities in the region?
This is an important question. Unfortunately in Brazil, there is an industry of environmental crime – land grabbing, especially in the 600,000 square kilometres of vacant land in the Amazon that belongs to the Union. The landgrabbers go there, cut the forest, burn the wood, plant grass and sell the land for illegal cattle ranches. But the politicians from rural sectors in Brazil are very powerful in the Congress and everyone knows that, after a few years, they will retrospectively legalize that land in the name of alleviating poverty. It’s the legalization of illegality. Also, the big meat companies are always promising they are going to run traceability of their cattle to ensure they don’t bring any of this deforestation-related meat into commodity markets. They say this, but so far they haven’t accomplished it. The meat companies try to defend themselves, but in Brazil 50% of greenhouse gas emissions are associated with the beef industry directly or indirectly, because 90% of deforestation in the Amazon is to produce new cattle ranches.
▲ Regenerative agriculture in South America. © Christian Holzinger
Q. So what should be done to change this?
Regenerative agriculture is one answer and we already have a good number of cattle ranchers in Brazil doing this type of farming. It’s a system that integrates cattle, crops and forests. You rotate the land use, moving the cattle between pastures every two months, growing crops on pasture that cows have left to re-fertilize the soil. You never use fire. And you plant trees around the ranch – many cattle ranchers don’t realize that cattle love trees. Every day they gain 200g of weight if they have some shade, and dairy cows produce 10-20% more milk in the shade. So having trees increases productivity, which is vital, because currently each hectare in Brazil supports an average of just 1.3 heads of cattle. But in an integrated, regenerative system you can have 4-6 cattle per hectare. The question is: Why don’t all ranchers do this, when these integrated systems are 2-5 times more lucrative? It’s nothing to do with economics – it’s cultural. Many cattle ranchers are middle class – they don’t care about productivity, they care about the sheer size of their ranches. For centuries, land ownership has been part of their cultural values. Because of this, we have criminals grabbing land. So over 90% of deforestation is illegal and it’s driven more and more by organised crime, financed by illegal gold mining, wildlife trafficking and especially drugs like cocaine. It’s a war. There’s no way for the private sector to solve this problem – you need the governments to act. With the new government in Brazil there is hope. President Lula has committed to fight the criminals and end deforestation by 2030. This is not just a political promise – during his first term from 2003-2010, deforestation rates fell by 75%.
Many cattle ranchers don't realise that cattle love trees - they gain 200g of weight with shade.
Q. How long do we have left to save the Amazon?
We have till yesterday. But seriously, the Amazon is so close to a tipping point that there is no way to say. When deforestation exceeds 20 or 25% across the whole Amazon, we may have already exceeded that tipping point. Today, deforestation is at about 18%. And don’t forget the impact of global warming on the forest. The Amazon is already 1.5-2.0°C warmer – if the planet reaches 2.5°C, then the Amazon will be 4.0°C warmer – bringing a longer, hotter dry season that’s only compatible with savanna. That’s why many scientists like me and Johan Rockström [Joint Director, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany] do not accept the so-called “overshooting” scenario, in which we let the atmosphere warm by say 2.3-2.5°C in the next two-three decades and then in the second half of the century, we’ll have new technologies to remove the CO2 and bring the temperature back down. What these people aren’t seeing is that if you cross 2.5 °C, the Amazon will exceed the tipping point, become a degraded tropical savanna and release 200-250 billion tonnes of CO2. The permafrost will melt in Siberia, Canada and Alaska, releasing another 100-150 billion tonnes. And then with 400 billion tonnes of CO2 released, you can forget it. These processes are effectively irreversible – melting the ice, losing the forest – it would take thousands of years to reverse that.
▼ Illegal Mining in Yanomami Indigenous Land in Brazil. © Christian Braga / Greenpeace
Q. Finally, how have you stayed motivated these past 30 years, when the ecosystem you love has come under such pressure? What gives you hope?
I was so pessimistic when I was in my 50s – I’d spent 30 years warning people about the risk of “savannization” of the Amazon. Then, in 2017, when it came for me to retire, I realized I’d done four decades of research but I’d never worked on any solutions. So although I’m not an economist or an engineer, I’m now leading this effort to find solutions. As well as the Arcs of Restoration, I’ve launched a $1 billion project to create an Amazon Institute of Technology-AmIT. We aim to build a new bioeconomy around the Amazon’s unique assets, including its forests, flowing rivers and biodiversity. We are planning research and education centres across the region, to engage young people and focus on social empowerment. We aim to bring Indigenous Peoples and local communities into the institute to share their wisdom. They’ve been living with the forest for 12,000 years. We have so much to learn from their science but also from their philosophy and culture, which prohibits killing and deforestation.
… [Indigenous Peoples ] have been living with the forest for 12,000 years. We have so much to learn from their science but also from their philosophy and culture, which prohibits killing and deforestation.
Carlos A. Nobre is an Earth System scientist from Brazil. He dedicated his scientific career mostly to Amazonian and climate science at Brazil’s National Institutes of Amazonian Research (INPA) and Space Research (INPE).
He proposed more than 30 years ago the hypothesis of Amazon “savannization” in response to deforestation. He was one of the authors of IPCC AR4 awarded with the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007. He is presently a senior researcher with the Institute for Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo and the creator of the Amazon Third Way-Amazonia 4.0 Initiative that seeks a new development paradigm based on a biodiversity-driven bio-economy utilizing modern technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
Further reading:Conservation is not enough – we need to restore the Amazon forest; World Economic Forum Agenda Blog
Indigenous culture and science in the Amazon is vital to the protection of the forests. © Juan Carlos Huayllapuma/CIFOR ►
